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Modelling the dispersal of propagules and mangrove assemblages: current situation and possible future scenarios of sea level rise (Gazi Bay, Kenya)
Di Nitto, D.; Defever, H.; Neukermans, G.; Decleir, H.; Pattyn, F.; Kairo, J.G.; Koedam, N.; Dahdouh-Guebas, F. (2009). Modelling the dispersal of propagules and mangrove assemblages: current situation and possible future scenarios of sea level rise (Gazi Bay, Kenya), in: Dahdouh-Guebas, F. et al. Proceedings of the Symposium African Botany in Brussels. pp. 72
In: Dahdouh-Guebas, F. et al. (2009). Proceedings of the Symposium African Botany in Brussels. Université libre de Bruxelles - ULB / Vrije Universiteit Brussel - VUB: Belgium. 120 + 10 annex. pp.
Available in  Authors 
Document type: Summary
Keywords
Author keywords
    propagule dispersal
Authors  Top 
  • Di Nitto, D.
  • Defever, H.
  • Neukermans, G., more
  • Decleir, H.
  • Pattyn, F.
  • Kairo, J.G.
  • Koedam, N.
  • Dahdouh-Guebas, F., more
Abstract
    The main objectives of this experimental study relates to the study of vegetation structure dynamics; (1) it contributes to the scientific understanding concerning the hydrochorous dispersal o fpropagules, and (2) it attempts to predict possible shifts in mangrove assemblages under different 'Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC)' scenarios of sea level rise. Collected data was implemented in a Geographical Information System (GIS) to perform all spatial analyses required for this study. The main results show the suitability maps of a small area (0.1 ha) which indicate the areas that can be colonised by different species ofpropagules. Secondly, modelling of the different IPCC scenarios (whole bay) gave the overall trend of frontal regression in the seaward zones while the landward zones expand into the terrestrial habitats. When considering the maximum scenario, +88cm by the year 2100, the landward expansion is clearly hindered by a talud which the colonizing species can not cross. In this situation the more landward assemblages dominated by Avicennia will not survive unless they adapt to the replaced inundation class. The GIS analyses take into account the available information derived from the fieldwork, but alterations related to degradation and/or sea level changes (e.g. changes in topography, erosion patterns, golf action,...) are beyond the scope of this explorative study.
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