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Predicting future discoveries of European marine species by using a non-homogeneous renewal process
Wilson, S.P.; Costello, M.J. (2005). Predicting future discoveries of European marine species by using a non-homogeneous renewal process. Appl. Statist. 54(5): 897-918
In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, Applied Statistics. Blackwell Publishers: London. ISSN 0035-9254; e-ISSN 1467-9876
Peer reviewed article  
Available in  Authors 
Keywords
    Biodiversity
    Dispersion
    Prediction
    Taxa > Species
    Marine/Coastal
Authors  Top 
  • Wilson, S.P.
  • Costello, M.J., more
Abstract
    Predicting future rates of species discovery and the number of species remaining are important in efforts to preserve biodiversity, discussions on the rate of species extinction and comparisons on the state of knowledge of animals and plants of different taxa. Data on discovery dates of species in 32 European marine taxa are analysed by using a class of thinned temporal renewal process models.These models allow for both underdispersion and overdispersion with respect to the non-homogeneous Poisson process. An approach for implementing Bayesian inference for these models is described that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and that is applicable to other types of thinned process. Predictions are made on the number of species remaining to be discovered in each taxon.
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